Who Sells First? These Bitcoin Investors Most Prone to Panic in Downturns

Bitcoin is currently hovering a little above $115K. Amidst the market turbulence, an important cohort of BTC holders is behaving like impatient traders.

While they lack multi-cycle experience and frequently capitulate, such a trend could spur renewed market strength post-drawdowns.

BTC Holders Behaviours

A new analysis found that Bitcoin holders in the 3-5 year age band are behaving more like short-term participants than seasoned investors in the current cycle. This group, mainly composed of buyers from the 2021 cycle, is often classified as long-term holders (LTHs).

However, CryptoQuant noted that true long-term investors are those who have weathered at least two market cycles. Instead of taking profits at recent highs, these holders have shown a stronger tendency to sell during downturns.

Analysts point out that such capitulation has historically coincided with market bottoms and often preceded sharp rebounds in Bitcoin’s price. The findings point to a growing divergence between mid-term holders and veteran investors. This, in turn, has now raised questions about how this cohort may influence the next phase of the market.

Meanwhile, CryptoQuant recently flagged fresh activity among large Bitcoin investors, as the Exchange Whale Ratio climbed into the 0.47-0.50 range. The metric tracks the share of BTC inflows to exchanges coming from the top 10 largest transactions, and is often viewed as a gauge of whale participation.

Past instances outlined by the report show a recurring pattern: a spike in whale ratio, price stabilization, and eventual recovery. With the indicator now testing levels previously associated with bottom formation, the platform said that Bitcoin may be entering the early stages of a new bullish phase.

The behaviour of the BTC holders aligns with the bigger picture, which depicts that the asset remains in a constructive market phase.

“No Red Flags” in BTC Trajectory

Bitcoin Vector’s Bitcoin Fundamental Index indicates that after periods of redistribution, BTC typically follows a three-step cycle: recovery, accumulation, and expansion. According to the analytic platform, the market is currently positioned between the accumulation and expansion phases, which means that the asset has potential for further upside.

Importantly, Glassnode co-founder Negentropic added that on-chain fundamentals remain strong, with “no red flags” that might otherwise raise concern.