Turkey’s mediator role in the Ukraine war faces growing US pressure

Erdogan told reporters alongside Zelensky that Turkey was ready to resume the “Istanbul Process”, the term Ankara uses for earlier talks between Ukraine and Russia.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Erdogan has strengthened ties with Vladimir Putin and has said those relations help efforts to end the fighting.

But Sinan Ciddi, of the US think tank the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, said Washington’s latest actions suggest Ankara’s influence is fading.

Ankara’s mediation, he said, had not produced results for either the Trump administration or its Western allies and has done little to move the conflict closer to a ceasefire or peace deal. “Washington is going its own way,” said Ciddi.

US special envoy Steve Witkoff, who is leading Washington’s peace efforts, did not attend the meeting in Ankara despite earlier reports he would.

Some analysts say Ankara overplayed its hand by suggesting it could use its ties with Putin to deliver a summit that never happened.

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Changing diplomatic landscape

Russia-Turkey expert Zaur Gasimov, of the German Academic Exchange Service, said Ankara’s role has been weakened, with other countries such as Hungary now seen as possible venues for talks.

Donald Trump’s decision to deal directly with Moscow, he added, reduces the need for Turkey as a go-between.

“Russia at the moment is not interested in any kind of peace negotiations with Kiev. But Putin and Moscow are interested in direct negotiations with the United States on this issue and possibly other issues,” Gasimov said, adding that Russia still values its ties with Ankara.

“For Russia, contacts with Turkey are of paramount importance, being isolated by anti-Russian sanctions.”

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Energy pressure on Ankara

Erdogan has refused to enforce most Western sanctions on Russia, saying his relationship with Moscow is needed to build peace.

But during Erdogan’s September visit to Washington, Trump told him to end imports of Russian energy, which make up around half of Turkey’s needs.

Erdogan appears to be responding, as Russian oil imports have fallen in recent weeks.

Ankara is also trying to strengthen its security ties with the European Union. Direct summits between Putin and Erdogan were once common but are now rare, with their meetings limited to the sidelines of international events.

“There is clearly a move, more effort to restore and bolster relationships with the Western world,” former Turkish ambassador Timur Soylemez told RFI.

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Balancing relations with Russia

Soylemez said Ankara will still try to avoid harming its relations with Moscow.

“The view from Ankara is that it’s never a zero-sum game. Actually, the trick is to prevent it from being a zero-sum game. I think that would be an ongoing effort right now,” Soylemez said.

Turkey’s ability to balance both sides, he added, remains important for a long-term peace.

“Turkish diplomacy and Turkey in general have shown there is a role for us to play,” Soylemez said.

“For example, the Black Sea, when it comes to prison exchange, when it comes to de-escalation on different topics. Basically, because we have a channel to both sides and we’re trusted by both sides.”

Turkey is working with its Black Sea NATO partners on mine clearance. Analysts say this could later help secure safe passage for Ukrainian ships under a peace deal.

But the targeting on Monday of a Turkish-flagged ship carrying a gas cargo at the port of Izmail in Ukraine by suspected Russian drones shows the risks Turkey faces as it tries to strengthen relations with Western allies without provoking Moscow.