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The legal noose is tightening around Turkey’s main opposition party, with waves of arrests targeting mayors and local officials. But the troubles of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) could deepen further, as a court case threatens the removal of its leadership.
“We are fighting for the future of Turkey’s democracy,” said party leader Ozgur Ozel to tens of thousands of supporters at a rally in Ankara on Saturday.
Ozel has been travelling the country since March, when Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was arrested on graft charges. The case marked the start of a legal assault on the CHP. Ozel now speaks at rallies twice a week, despite his often hoarse voice.
The party is also defending itself in court over alleged voting irregularities at a congress two years ago that elected Ozel as leader. If the court rules against them, Ozel and the rest of the party leadership could be removed and replaced by state-appointed trustees.
“It’s unprecedented,” said political analyst Sezin Oney of the Politics news portal. “There has not been such a purge, such a massive crackdown on the opposition, and there is no end in sight, that’s the issue.”
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Arrests and polls
On Wednesday, another CHP mayor in Istanbul was jailed, bringing the total to 16 detained mayors and more than 300 other officials. Most face corruption charges.
The arrests come as the CHP’s new leadership is stepping up its challenge to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Recent opinion polls give Imamoglu and other CHP figures double-digit leads over the president.
Oney said the prosecutions are part of Erdogan’s wider strategy.
“He’s trying to complete the transformation, the metamorphosis as I call it, of Turkey to become a full authoritarian country,” she said.
“There is an opposition but the opposition is a grotesque opposition, that can never have the power actually to be in government. But they give the perception as if the country is democratic because there are elections.”
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‘Multi-front attack’
Ilhan Uzgel, the CHP’s foreign affairs coordinator, said the party is under siege.
“We are under a multi-front attack from all directions at almost every level, running from one court case to another,” he said.
He argued that Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is using fear to force defections. “Sixteen of our mayors are in jail right now, and they threaten our mayors. You either join our party or you face a jail term,” Uzgel said.
Erdogan rejects any suggestion of coercion and insists the judiciary is independent. Since he came to power more than 20 years ago, however, not a single AKP mayor has been convicted on graft charges – though on Friday at least two local mayors from the ruling party were detained as part of a corruption investigation.
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Political risks
Despite appearing dominant, Erdogan may face a backlash. Atilla Yesilada, a political analyst with Global Source Partners, said the crackdown is fuelling public anger.
“You look at recent polls, the first complaint remains economic conditions, but justice rose to number two. These things don’t escape people’s notice; that’s what I mean when I say Erdogan took a huge political risk with his career,” he said.
Erdogan currently trails behind several potential challengers, but elections are still more than two years away.
Yesilada said much depends on the stance of Erdogan’s ally Devlet Bahceli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party.
“It’s quite possible at some point, Bahceli will say enough is enough, you are destroying the country, and may also end the coalition,” he said.
Bahceli formed an informal alliance with Erdogan in 2018, when Turkey switched to a presidential system. Erdogan relies on Bahceli’s parliamentary deputies to pass constitutional reforms needed to secure another term.
Bahceli has voiced concern about the pressure on the CHP, which has been trying to win his support. But with the court expected to rule next month on the party’s leadership, the CHP says it will keep fighting.
“The only thing that we can do is rely on our people, our electorate, and the democratic forces in the country. We are not going to give up,” said Uzgel.
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