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Turkish armed forces could play a major role in securing any peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. For Ankara, this would be a chance to reassert itself at a time when many fear it is being sidelined by Western allies.
European and US military chiefs last week reportedly presented ideas to their national security advisers on how to guarantee Ukraine’s security if there is a peace deal with Russia.
The discussions followed a summit of European leaders in Washington with US President Donald Trump on ending the conflict.
“It’s going to be a big challenge, but they will find ways of tackling that challenge without the US troops on the ground,” said Serhat Guvenc, professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Kadir Has University.
“It will be a novelty because Europe has never carried out any peacekeeping or stabilization operation of this magnitude before.”
Turkey, with NATO’s second-largest army, is seen as a possible option.
“Turkey is an option, you know. And it seems that there is some talk of Turkish contribution,” Guvenc added.
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Ankara signals readiness
On the same day, French President Emmanuel Macron held a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss Ukraine’s security.
Ankara has already signalled it could take part in monitoring any peace deal, but Moscow’s approval would be necessary.
“If the parties agree, Turkey may send our troops to peacekeeping operations,” said Mesut Casin, a former presidential adviser and professor at Istanbul’s Yeditepe University.
Casin pointed to Turkey’s past record in UN operations.
“Turkey joined many UN peacekeeping operations in the former Yugoslavia, Somalia, and Korea, and in many other peacekeeping operations. The Turkish army is very powerful,” he said.
“Also, remember Putin is talking many times with Erdogan, and at the same time, Zelensky is visiting Ankara.”
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Balancing Moscow and Kyiv
Since the start of the war, Erdogan has kept good relations with both Russia and Ukraine.
Ankara has refused to apply most international sanctions on Moscow, while at the same time selling vital military hardware to Kyiv. That balancing act has raised questions among European partners.
“Turkey ought to have been at the Washington meeting,” said Soli Ozel, an international relations scholar at the Institute for Human Studies in Vienna.
Even though Turkey borders both Ukraine and Russia, Erdogan was excluded from this month’s summit between Trump and European leaders.
“The fact that it wasn’t backs the observation that the bigger players or the major partners are not bringing Turkey center stage, they’re sidelining it,” Ozel added.
Despite this, Ankara remains strategically important.
“They keep it in the play, it’s important because if you’re going to need troops, you’re going to need Turkey. If you’re going to talk about the Black Sea security, you need Turkey. And so you cannot really dismiss Turkey,” Ozel said.
But he warned that mistrust is limiting Ankara’s role.
“You’re not making it part of the process that will hopefully lead to a conclusion or a peace treaty between Ukraine and Russia. There is a lack of trust, and I think that has something to do with the way Turkey has conducted its diplomacy,” Ozel said.
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Doubts over influence
Some analysts suggest Ankara hopes Europe’s reliance on Turkish forces or its navy for Black Sea security could help restore influence. But others see limited gains.
“There is no automatic increase in Turkey’s influence and credibility as a result of taking part in such operations,” said Guvenc.
“It does have a certain impact, but on the other hand, such contributions do not change other Western partners’ views of Turkey.”
Rather than a reset with Europe, Guvenc sees a continuation of the current dynamic.
“What might happen is yet another manifestation of transactionalism on both sides. And if Turkey contributes to peacekeeping in Ukraine, probably President Erdogan expects concrete benefits that will help him manage the deteriorating economic situation in Turkey.
“Therefore, you cannot build a comprehensive and sustainable relationship built on that transactionalism on both sides.”
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