OPINION / EXPERT PERSPECTIVE –The world is a much different place than it was in 2018, when Putin and Trump met in Helsinki. And the stakes for Friday’s meeting could not be higher because the world is a much more dangerous place. Without hyperbole, one can argue that the fate of the free world hangs in the balance.
If Putin walks away having conceded nothing and instead, convincing the U.S. to put pressure on Ukraine to make concessions or face consequences, Putin will have achieved a major success and will be emboldened to continue his aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere. China and Iran will be similarly encouraged with unfortunate future kinetic consequences in East Asia and the Middle East. This would be a train wreck for the free world.
We will see if the meeting turns out to be a catastrophe that leads to a bigger war as was the case with the Munich conference in September 1938. Or if Trump and Putin decide to go down the path of the Yalta meeting in February 1945 where the post war world was divided up between the West and the Soviet Union. Or it could be a meeting that bears the characteristics of the Casablanca conference in January 1943—at a time when World War II was not going well for the allies—where the leaders of the West (principally Churchill and Roosevelt) issued the Casablanca Declaration which promulgated the policy of “unconditional surrender.”
This doctrine represented the determination of the united powers of the Allies to fight to bring about the ultimate defeat of the Axis powers lead by Germany and Japan. Let us hope President Trump realizes the importance of the moment and uses the opportunity to pass a similarly strong message to the leader of the anti-free world coalition, sometimes referred to as the Axis of Resistance.
At the time of the 2018 Helsinki Summit there was no war in Europe. We are now witnessing the biggest military conflict in Europe since 1945, initiated by Putin. There is an ongoing conflict in the Middle East in Gaza and the possibility of renewed conflict with Iran if it attempts to rebuild its nuclear weapons program.
The Deputy Secretary of the Russian National Security Council has made direct threats of nuclear conflict and the use by Russia of a Doomsday weapon, the “Dead Hand” system. Trump ordered the out of cycle deployment of two U.S. nuclear submarines in response. China seems engaged in more aggressive and intimidating military operations around Taiwan.
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There have been positive developments for the Free World since 2018 that President Trump should recall. The regime of Putin’s friend and ally Basher al-Assad in Syria collapsed and he is now in exile in Moscow. The favored proxies Hamas and Hezbollah, allies of Iran, have been crushed. Iran itself has been effectively attacked and its nuclear program severely damaged if not destroyed. Sweden and Finland are now members of the NATO alliance. NATO itself has found new relevance and purpose. Europe is committed to rearmament. From a strategic perspective, Putin’s situation has worsened dramatically since 2018. The Axis is sinking.
Yet Putin believes he is in a position of strength. He feels that way because of what he has achieved over the past several months – up to and including meeting with President Trump’s lead negotiator, Steve Witkoff. Astonishingly, Witkoff agreed to a three-hour meeting with Putin using only a Russian-provided interpreter. Putin certainly knew he was in complete control from that moment onward. It appears Witkoff was confused about what was said at that meeting and it is certain he delivered no tough messages to Putin about the consequences Russia would face if it continued the war in Ukraine.
Putin however, came away from the meeting having conceded nothing in terms of Russia’s objectives setting the stage for the Alaska meeting. First round to Putin. He gets a summit on US soil. And will get the prestige of meeting a U.S. President as an equal when he is not an equal.
The results of Witkoff’s meetings in Moscow and Trump’s refusal to stand by his threats of massive consequences if Russia didn’t take steps to end the war by last Friday, caused elation in Russian media and within circles in the Kremlin. They were equally disheartening in Kyiv and European capitals. Happily, the US, Europe, and Ukraine seemed to have aligned their positions following a conference call last week and Trump has renewed his threat of severe consequences for Russia if an agreement for at least a cease fire is not achieved on February 15. But this is not enough. Putin is buying more time to kill and wittingly or not, Trump is granting it.
Putin’s approach to Trump is not friendship. It’s raw manipulation. Much has been made of Putin’s background as an intelligence officer, in understanding how he thinks, as it should. His training has prepared him for meetings like this. And Putin has been at this game a long time. He has seen plenty of U.S. Presidents come and go. He will remember well the mistakes Trump made in the meetings they had during Trump’s first term. You can be sure Putin will use equal parts of flattery for what Trump has achieved in the first months of his second term, sympathy for the challenges Trump faces with the “deep state and Russian election influence conspiracy,” disparagement about the deterioration of U.S.-Russian relations under the Biden Administration, and complaints about the corruption and Nazi antecedents of the Zelensky Administration, and plenty of rhetoric about the roots of the current conflict lying with the aggressive expansion eastward of the NATO military alliance. Putin is certainly confident these messages will resonate with Trump. Putin will be similarly confident Trump will be even less prepared for this hastily arranged summit than he was for their meetings during Trump’s first term.
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As of now, there is no indication of any movement toward a concession from Moscow on Ukraine. Putin may offer some vague commitment to negotiations as he has in the past. He will likely offer concessions on an issue unrelated to Ukraine, such as nuclear arms control, to give Trump something that can be portrayed as an accomplishment from the summit. This costs him nothing and moves no closer to stopping the killing in Ukraine.
President Trump has the opportunity to turn the tables on Putin if he is willing. It’s not likely to happen, but Trump should first open the meeting by reminding Putin that he is a wanted war criminal and that it is only through the benevolence of the U.S. that he is not arrested and remanded to The Hague.
Secondly, Trump should tell Putin in no uncertain terms that Russia is solely responsible for this conflict and the “threat” posed to Russia by NATO is pure bunk.
Thirdly, Trump should express solid U.S. support for a free Ukraine and communicate clearly that when the conflict ends, the U.S. and its European allies will be guarantors of free Ukraine. Then Trump should turn to the matter at hand and demand Putin issue an immediate ceasefire order and begin negotiations with Ukraine on a peaceful resolution of the conflict.
President Trump should disabuse Putin of any notion that the old Russian negotiating maxim of “what’s ours is ours and what’s yours is negotiable” will not apply in these negotiations.
Trump should remind Putin he is prepared to move forward with the tough bipartisan sanctions legislation in Congress and immediately increase military and financial aid to Ukraine—especially air defense systems. Putin will certainly have on his mind the TACO acronym (standing for ‘Trump Always Chickens Out’) as he prepares for another opportunity to manipulate the U.S. President. Trump should create the reverse by putting the type of pressure on Putin that will send him back to Moscow with his tail between his legs. Anything short of that will not stop the killing in Ukraine.
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