Erdogan’s Washington visit exposes limits of his rapport with Trump

Ankara is celebrating a diplomatic win after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was hosted by US President Donald Trump in Washington on Thursday.

In the Oval Office, Trump praised his guest in front of the world’s media.

“He’s a highly respected man,” Trump said. “He’s respected very much in his country and throughout Europe and throughout the world, where they know him.”

Erdogan smiled as he listened. The Turkish leader had been frozen out by President Joe Biden, who made clear his dislike for the Turkish leader.

Trump, by contrast, has long cultivated a friendship with him. But even that relationship has limits, with Israel’s war on Gaza still a source of strain.

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Restraint over Gaza

Erdogan is a strong supporter of Hamas, which he refuses to label a terrorist group, calling it instead a resistance movement. Yet he chose not to let the issue overshadow his visit.

Analysts say this restraint was deliberate.

“There’s been a concerted effort not to get into a spat about Gaza,” Asli Aydintasbas, of the Washington-based Brookings Institution, told RFI. “Uncharacteristically, he remains silent on the Gaza issue and that is by design.”

During his trip, Erdogan kept his criticism of Israel’s offensive in Gaza to remarks at the UN General Assembly, echoing broader international condemnation.

He also met French President Emmanuel Macron in New York and welcomed France’s recognition of a Palestinian state.

Erdogan is also seeking wider backing as concerns over Israel’s actions grow, an issue that also came up in his talks with Trump.

“Turkey’s concerns with Israel are not actually limited to Gaza,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara.

He said Ankara is also uneasy about Israel’s actions in neighbouring states, adding that the two countries’ policies towards Syria clash sharply.

“Turkey wants a stable Syria and one that’s centralised,” he said. “Whereas Israel wants a decentralised and less stable Syria.”

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Energy and Russia

Turkey’s close ties with Russia risk becoming another flashpoint.

Sitting beside Erdogan at the Oval Office, Trump called for an end to Turkish purchases of Russian energy. He also criticised Erdogan’s long-standing policy of balancing relations between Washington and Moscow.

“Trump does not want a balancing Turkey, at least today,” said Aydintasbas. “That was more obvious than ever in his rhetoric and his dealings with Erdogan.”

She said Erdogan had assumed for the past decade that his balancing act between the West and Russia was acceptable. “It must come as a surprise,” she added.

Turkey is the third-largest importer of Russian oil and gas. But in a move seen as an attempt to placate Trump, Ankara this week signed a multibillion-dollar deal to buy US liquefied natural gas over 20 years.

The two leaders also signed a strategic agreement on civil nuclear cooperation, which could pave the way for Turkey to buy US-made nuclear reactors.

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Limited gains

Despite these gestures, analysts said Erdogan achieved little in return. He had hoped Trump would lift a US embargo on the sale of F-35 stealth fighter jets. Instead, Trump only gave a vague promise to address the issue.

For Erdogan, however, the White House meeting itself may have been the main prize.

US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said before the meeting that Trump wanted to give Erdogan “legitimacy”.

“For Erdogan, this is a big win,” said Sinan Ciddi, of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies. The Turkish leader, he said, has long sought a White House photo-op to showcase at home.

“He gets to show that he has met the US president, has gravitas on the world stage and is signing deals with Washington,” Ciddi added.

“At a time when he is jailing leaders and dismantling democratic governance inside Turkey, he is being legitimised by the leader of the so-called free world.”